In the complex world of economics, where countless variables interact and influence one another, it’s crucial to have tools that provide a glimpse into the future. This is where leading indicators come into play. These vital economic metrics provide valuable insights into potential turning points in the business cycle before they become widely apparent. Think of them as the “canary in the coal mine,” signaling shifts in economic activity before broader trends emerge.
Employment leading indicators, in particular, hold a special place in our analytical toolkit. Changes in the labor market often precede broader economic shifts. By examining factors like job openings, temporary employment trends, and business sentiment regarding hiring, we gain a crucial understanding of where the economy might be headed. These indicators offer a window into future employment levels, wage pressures, and consumer spending patterns – all vital components of overall economic health. Understanding these leading signals allows us to anticipate changes in the labor market and proactively adjust investment strategies to capitalize on opportunities or mitigate potential risks.
Average Of ISM Manufacturing Employment & ISM Service Employment
Recent Changes To The Leading Economic index (LEI)
Apr-25
Mar-25
Feb-25
Jan-25
Dec-24
Nov-24
Oct-24
Sep-24
Aug-24
Jul-24
Jun-24
May-24
Avg. ISM Employment
--
44.7
47.6
50.3
45.4
48.1
44.8
43.9
46
43.4
49.3
51.1
Δ Change in Avg. ISM Employment
--
-2.9
-2.7
4.9
-2.7
3.3
0.9
-2.1
2.6
-5.9
-1.8
2.5
Percent Off Highs
--
-20.6
-20.13
-15.6
-23.83
-19.3
-24.83
-26.34
-22.82
-27.18
-17.28
-14.26
Percent Off Lows
--
3
9.68
15.9
4.61
10.83
3.23
1.15
5.99
0
13.07
24.33
Yr/Yr Growth Rate
--
-5.7
3.7
6.79
-4.42
4.34
-4.27
-14.26
-5.15
-2.25
2.49
-0.58
Trend Yr/Yr Growth Rate
--
Down
Up
Up
Down
Up
Down
Down
Down
Up
Up
Up
Table 1: This table shows the recent changed to ISM New Orders in Manufacturing PMI
Figure 4: The boxplot illustrates the distribution of 12-month changes in the LEI across different stages of the business cycle. By examining these changes by stage, we can gain insights into how initial claims evolve during different phases of the economic cycle. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for assessing the overall health of the labor market and the economy.
NFIB: Jobs Hard To Fill
The NFIB jobs hard to fill tends to lead the unemployment data about 3-months.
Figure 5: The NFIB Jobs Hard To Fill indicator is a leading indicator of labor market conditions. A high percentage of jobs hard to fill suggests a tight labor market, while a low percentage indicates a weaker labor market. The chart shows the 3-month moving average of the NFIB Jobs Hard To Fill indicator, advanced by 3 months to align with the unemployment rate. Understanding these trends is crucial for assessing the overall health of the labor market and the economy.
Figure 6: The 24-month change in job openings is a leading indicator of labor market conditions. This chart shows the 24-month change in job openings, which can provide insights into the overall health of the labor market and the economy. Understanding these trends is crucial for assessing the overall health of the labor market and the economy.
Figure 7: The boxplot by stage shows the 12-month change in jobs hard to fill by business cycle stage. This chart provides insights into how job openings change across different stages of the business cycle, helping to identify trends and potential turning points in the labor market. Understanding these trends is crucial for assessing the overall health of the labor market and the economy.
Apr-25
Mar-25
Feb-25
Jan-25
Dec-24
Nov-24
Oct-24
Sep-24
Aug-24
Jul-24
Jun-24
May-24
Jobs Hard to Fill
--
--
35
34.09
35.18
36.06
36.92
38.44
40.59
38.77
38.64
40.38
Apr-25
Mar-25
Feb-25
Jan-25
Dec-24
Nov-24
Oct-24
Sep-24
Aug-24
Jul-24
Jun-24
May-24
Δ Change
--
--
0.9
-1.09
-0.88
-0.86
-1.52
-2.14
1.81
0.13
-1.74
2.12
Trend
--
--
Down
Down
Down
Down
Down
Down
Up
Down
Down
Down
24-Month Change
--
--
-8.14
-8.58
-7.57
-9.53
-11.17
-10.44
-9.18
-10.85
-11.3
-8.61
Revolving Consumer Credit
As unemployment rises, the flow of revolving consumer credit owned and securitized tends to drop due to a combination of constrained credit supply and reduced consumer demand. Lenders tighten standards and become more risk-averse, limiting the availability of new credit. Simultaneously, consumers grapple with job losses and income reductions, leading to increased precautionary savings, decreased consumption, and lower credit card usage. This confluence of factors results in a decline in the origination and securitization of new revolving credit.
Apr-25
Mar-25
Feb-25
Jan-25
Dec-24
Nov-24
Oct-24
Sep-24
Aug-24
Jul-24
Jun-24
May-24
Revolving Credit
--
--
--
8986.05
20863.57
-18346.95
11308.93
1767.72
-1788.98
10058.86
-1428.96
8417.06
Apr-25
Mar-25
Feb-25
Jan-25
Dec-24
Nov-24
Oct-24
Sep-24
Aug-24
Jul-24
Jun-24
May-24
Δ Change
--
--
--
-11877.52
39210.52
-29655.88
9541.21
3556.7
-11847.84
11487.82
-9846.02
7826.78
Trend
--
--
--
Up
Up
Down
Up
Down
Down
Up
Down
Up
24-Month Change
--
--
-8.14
-8.58
-7.57
-9.53
-11.17
-10.44
-9.18
-10.85
-11.3
-8.61
Job Openings
Job openings are a critical leading indicator of labor market health. When businesses have more job openings, it signals increased demand for labor and suggests that companies are expanding and looking to hire new employees. Rising job openings can lead to increased hiring, lower unemployment rates, and potentially higher wages as employers compete for qualified workers. Conversely, a decline in job openings may indicate a slowdown in economic activity, reduced hiring, and potential layoffs.
There is a relationship between job openings and the unemployment rate, called the Beveridge Curve.
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When job openings are high, it typically indicates a strong labor market with businesses actively seeking workers. This can lead to increased hiring, lower unemployment rates, and potentially higher wages as employers compete for qualified workers. Conversely, a decline in job openings may indicate a slowdown in economic activity, reduced hiring, and potential layoffs.
Figure 8: Job openings are a key indicator of labor demand. A high number of job openings can signal a strong labor market, with businesses actively seeking workers. Conversely, a low number of job openings may indicate a weaker labor market, with fewer opportunities available for job seekers. The chart illustrates the trend in job openings, a critical measure of labor demand. Understanding these trends is crucial for assessing the overall health of the labor market and the economy.
Figure 9: The 24-month change in job openings provides insights into the labor market dynamics over time. A positive change indicates an increase in job openings, signaling a growing demand for labor. Conversely, a negative change suggests a decline in job openings, which may indicate a weakening labor market. Understanding these trends is crucial for assessing the overall health of the labor market and the economy.
Figure 10: The boxplot illustrates the distribution of 12-month changes in job openings across different stages of the business cycle. By examining these changes by stage, we can gain insights into how job openings evolve during different phases of the economic cycle. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for assessing the overall health of the labor market and the economy.
Apr-25
Mar-25
Feb-25
Jan-25
Dec-24
Nov-24
Oct-24
Sep-24
Aug-24
Jul-24
Jun-24
May-24
Job Openings
--
--
7568
7762
7508
8031
7615
7103
7649
7504
7412
7901
Apr-25
Mar-25
Feb-25
Jan-25
Dec-24
Nov-24
Oct-24
Sep-24
Aug-24
Jul-24
Jun-24
May-24
Δ in Job Openings
--
--
-194
254
-523
416
512
-546
145
92
-489
282
Trend in Job Openings
--
--
Down
Up
Down
Up
Down
Down
Down
Down
Down
Down
24-Month Change
--
--
-2278
-2631
-3368
-2588
-2873
-3709
-2499
-4106
-3844
-3582
The Beveridge Curve
The Beveridge Curve is a graphical representation of the relationship between unemployment and job vacancies. It typically shows the unemployment rate on the horizontal axis and the job vacancy rate on the vertical axis. The curve usually has a negative slope, indicating that when unemployment is high, job vacancies tend to be low, and vice versa.
The Beveridge Curve can provide insights into the efficiency of the labor market. A shift in the curve can indicate changes in labor market dynamics, such as structural shifts in the economy, changes in the skills required by employers, or mismatches between job seekers and available positions.
Figure 11: The Beveridge Curve is a graphical representation of the relationship between unemployment and job vacancies. It typically shows the unemployment rate on the horizontal axis and the job vacancy rate on the vertical axis. The curve usually has a negative slope, indicating that when unemployment is high, job vacancies tend to be low, and vice versa. The Beveridge Curve can provide insights into the efficiency of the labor market and changes in labor market dynamics. Understanding these trends is crucial for assessing the overall health of the labor market and the economy.
The surge in JOLTS job openings post-COVID has been unprecedented, with the number of job openings reaching record highs. This surge has been driven by a combination of factors, including pent-up demand from the pandemic-induced economic shutdown, increased consumer spending, and supply chain disruptions. The rapid increase in job openings has outpaced the growth in the labor force, leading to labor shortages in many industries. Employers are struggling to find qualified workers to fill open positions, resulting in increased competition for talent and rising wages.
However, in 2024 the Beveridge Curve has shifted back to its pre-pandemic position, indicating a return to a more efficient labor market. The shift in the curve suggests that the structural changes observed in the labor market post-pandemic have largely dissipated, and the relationship between unemployment and job vacancies has returned to its historical pattern. This shift is a positive sign for the labor market, indicating a return to more normal labor market dynamics and a reduction in labor market frictions. At this point any further drop in JOLTS job openings would be a sign of a weakening labor market and an increase in unemployment.
Temporary Help Employment
Temporary help employment is another essential leading indicator of labor market conditions. Temporary employment often serves as a bellwether for broader labor market trends. When companies are hesitant to commit to permanent hires, they may turn to temporary workers to meet short-term staffing needs. An increase in temporary employment can signal growing business confidence and a willingness to invest in labor. Conversely, a decline in temporary employment may indicate economic uncertainty and a cautious approach to hiring.
Figure 12: Temporary help employment is a key indicator of labor market health. A rise in temporary employment can signal growing business confidence and a willingness to invest in labor. Conversely, a decline in temporary employment may indicate economic uncertainty and a cautious approach to hiring. The chart illustrates the trend in temporary help employment, a critical measure of labor market dynamics. Understanding these trends is crucial for assessing the overall health of the labor market and the economy.
Figure 13: The 24-month change in temporary help employment provides insights into the labor market dynamics over time. A positive change indicates an increase in temporary employment, signaling growing business confidence. Conversely, a negative change suggests a decline in temporary employment, which may indicate economic uncertainty. Understanding these trends is crucial for assessing the overall health of the labor market and the economy.
Figure 14: The boxplot illustrates the distribution of 12-month changes in temporary help employment across different stages of the business cycle. By examining these changes by stage, we can gain insights into how temporary employment evolves during different phases of the economic cycle. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for assessing the overall health of the labor market and the economy.
Apr-25
Mar-25
Feb-25
Jan-25
Dec-24
Nov-24
Oct-24
Sep-24
Aug-24
Jul-24
Jun-24
May-24
Temporary Help Employment
--
2527.3
2533.7
2543.8
2551.8
2550.1
2520.1
2555.5
2573.8
2594.3
2619.7
2645.7
Apr-25
Mar-25
Feb-25
Jan-25
Dec-24
Nov-24
Oct-24
Sep-24
Aug-24
Jul-24
Jun-24
May-24
Δ in Temporary Help
--
-6.4
-10.1
-8
1.7
30
-35.4
-18.3
-20.5
-25.4
-26
-20
Trend in Temporary Help
--
Down
Down
Down
Down
Down
Down
Down
Down
Down
Down
Down
24-Month Change
--
-403.2
-428
-431.4
-445.6
-485.4
-541.2
-511.5
-496.6
-488.5
-474.3
-457.3
Weekly Hours Worked, Manufacturing
The average weekly hours worked by production and nonsupervisory employees in the manufacturing sector can provide insights into labor market dynamics. When businesses require employees to work longer hours, it suggests increased demand for goods and services and a need for additional labor. Rising weekly hours can indicate a strong economy, with businesses operating at or near capacity. Conversely, a decline in weekly hours may signal reduced demand, slowing economic growth, and potential layoffs.
Figure 15: The average weekly hours worked by production and nonsupervisory employees in the manufacturing sector can provide insights into labor market dynamics. When businesses require employees to work longer hours, it suggests increased demand for goods and services and a need for additional labor. Rising weekly hours can indicate a strong economy, with businesses operating at or near capacity. Conversely, a decline in weekly hours may signal reduced demand, slowing economic growth, and potential layoffs. The chart illustrates the trend in average weekly hours worked in the manufacturing sector, a critical measure of labor market dynamics. Understanding these trends is crucial for assessing the overall health of the labor market and the economy.
Figure 16: The 24-month change in average weekly hours worked in the manufacturing sector provides insights into labor market dynamics over time. A positive change indicates an increase in weekly hours, signaling increased demand for goods and services. Conversely, a negative change suggests a decline in weekly hours, which may signal reduced demand and slowing economic growth. Understanding these trends is crucial for assessing the overall health of the labor market and the economy.
Figure 17: The boxplot illustrates the distribution of 12-month changes in average weekly hours worked in the manufacturing sector across different stages of the business cycle. By examining these changes by stage, we can gain insights into how weekly hours evolve during different phases of the economic cycle. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for assessing the overall health of the labor market and the economy.
Apr-25
Mar-25
Feb-25
Jan-25
Dec-24
Nov-24
Oct-24
Sep-24
Aug-24
Jul-24
Jun-24
May-24
Weekly Hours Worked
--
41.1
41
40.7
40.9
40.7
40.5
40.7
40.7
40.6
40.8
40.9
Apr-25
Mar-25
Feb-25
Jan-25
Dec-24
Nov-24
Oct-24
Sep-24
Aug-24
Jul-24
Jun-24
May-24
Δ in Weekly Hours Worked
--
0.1
0.3
-0.2
0.2
0.2
-0.2
0
0.1
-0.2
-0.1
0.3
Trend
--
Up
Up
Up
Up
Up
Down
Up
Up
Down
Up
Up
24-Month Change
--
0.5
0.3
-0.3
0.3
-0.2
-0.5
-0.3
-0.2
-0.4
-0.1
-0.2
Overtime Hours
Overtime hours worked by employees can provide valuable insights into labor market dynamics. When businesses require employees to work overtime, it suggests increased demand for goods and services and a need for additional labor. Rising overtime hours can indicate a strong economy, with businesses operating at or near capacity. Conversely, a decline in overtime hours may signal reduced demand, slowing economic growth, and potential layoffs.
Figure 18: The average weekly overtime hours worked by production and nonsupervisory employees in the manufacturing sector can provide insights into labor market dynamics. When businesses require employees to work longer hours, it suggests increased demand for goods and services and a need for additional labor. Rising weekly hours can indicate a strong economy, with businesses operating at or near capacity. Conversely, a decline in weekly hours may signal reduced demand, slowing economic growth, and potential layoffs. The chart illustrates the trend in average weekly overtime hours worked in the manufacturing sector, a critical measure of labor market dynamics. Understanding these trends is crucial for assessing the overall health of the labor market and the economy.
Figure 19: The 12-month change in average weekly overtime hours worked in the manufacturing sector provides insights into labor market dynamics over time. A positive change indicates an increase in weekly hours, signaling increased demand for goods and services. Conversely, a negative change suggests a decline in weekly hours, which may signal reduced demand and slowing economic growth. Understanding these trends is crucial for assessing the overall health of the labor market and the economy.
Figure 20: The boxplot illustrates the distribution of 12-month changes in average weekly overtime hours worked in the manufacturing sector across different stages of the business cycle. By examining these changes by stage, we can gain insights into how weekly hours evolve during different phases of the economic cycle. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for assessing the overall health of the labor market and the economy.
Apr-25
Mar-25
Feb-25
Jan-25
Dec-24
Nov-24
Oct-24
Sep-24
Aug-24
Jul-24
Jun-24
May-24
Weekly Overtime Worked
--
3.7
3.7
3.5
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.7
3.6
3.7
Apr-25
Mar-25
Feb-25
Jan-25
Dec-24
Nov-24
Oct-24
Sep-24
Aug-24
Jul-24
Jun-24
May-24
Δ in Overtime
--
0
0.2
-0.1
0
0
0
0
-0.1
0.1
-0.1
0.1
Trend
--
Up
Up
Down
Down
Up
Up
Up
Up
Up
Up
Up
Involuntarily Part-Time Ratio
The ratio of involuntarily part-time workers to all part-time workers can provide insights into labor market dynamics. When the ratio is high, it suggests that a significant portion of part-time workers would prefer full-time employment but are unable to find it. This situation can indicate slack in the labor market, with businesses not operating at full capacity. Conversely, a low ratio suggests that most part-time workers are content with their current hours and are not seeking full-time employment. Understanding these trends is crucial for assessing the overall health of the labor market and the economy.
Figure 21: The ratio of involuntarily part-time workers to all part-time workers can provide insights into labor market dynamics. When the ratio is high, it suggests that a significant portion of part-time workers would prefer full-time employment but are unable to find it. This situation can indicate slack in the labor market, with businesses not operating at full capacity. Conversely, a low ratio suggests that most part-time workers are content with their current hours and are not seeking full-time employment. The chart illustrates the trend in the ratio of involuntarily part-time workers to all part-time workers, a critical measure of labor market dynamics. Understanding these trends is crucial for assessing the overall health of the labor market and the economy.
Figure 22: The 24-month change in the ratio of involuntarily part-time workers to all part-time workers provides insights into labor market dynamics over time. A positive change indicates an increase in the ratio, suggesting that a larger share of part-time workers would prefer full-time employment. Conversely, a negative change suggests a decline in the ratio, indicating that fewer part-time workers are seeking full-time employment. Understanding these trends is crucial for assessing the overall health of the labor market and the economy.
Figure 23: The boxplot illustrates the distribution of 24-month changes in the ratio of involuntarily part-time workers to all part-time workers across different stages of the business cycle. By examining these changes by stage, we can gain insights into how the ratio evolves during different phases of the economic cycle. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for assessing the overall health of the labor market and the economy.
Apr-25
Mar-25
Feb-25
Jan-25
Dec-24
Nov-24
Oct-24
Sep-24
Aug-24
Jul-24
Jun-24
May-24
Ratio of Involuntary PT Workers
--
0.17
0.17
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.17
0.16
0.15
0.16
Apr-25
Mar-25
Feb-25
Jan-25
Dec-24
Nov-24
Oct-24
Sep-24
Aug-24
Jul-24
Jun-24
May-24
Δ in Ratio
--
-0.01
0.01
0
-0.01
0
0
-0.01
0.01
0.01
-0.01
0
Trend
--
Up
Up
Up
Down
Up
Up
Up
Up
Up
Down
Up
24-Month Change
--
1.44
2.26
1.26
1.07
1.93
2.46
1.74
1.36
1.27
0.81
-0.92
Intial Claims
Initial claims for unemployment insurance are a leading indicator of labor market conditions. A high number of initial claims suggests that businesses are laying off workers, which can indicate a weakening labor market. Conversely, a low number of initial claims suggests that businesses are retaining workers, which can indicate a strengthening labor market. Understanding these trends is crucial for assessing the overall health of the labor market and the economy.
Figure 24: Initial claims for unemployment insurance are a leading indicator of labor market conditions. A high number of initial claims suggests that businesses are laying off workers, which can indicate a weakening labor market. Conversely, a low number of initial claims suggests that businesses are retaining workers, which can indicate a strengthening labor market. The chart illustrates the trend in the 4-week moving average of initial claims, a critical measure of labor market dynamics. Understanding these trends is crucial for assessing the overall health of the labor market and the economy.
Figure 25: The 24-month change in the 4-week moving average of initial claims provides insights into labor market dynamics over time. A positive change indicates an increase in initial claims, suggesting that businesses are laying off workers and the labor market is weakening. Conversely, a negative change suggests a decline in initial claims, indicating that businesses are retaining workers and the labor market is strengthening. Understanding these trends is crucial for assessing the overall health of the labor market and the economy.
Figure 26: The boxplot illustrates the distribution of 24-month changes in the 4-week moving average of initial claims across different stages of the business cycle. By examining these changes by stage, we can gain insights into how initial claims evolve during different phases of the economic cycle. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for assessing the overall health of the labor market and the economy.
Figure 27: The number of continued claims for unemployment insurance provides insights into labor market dynamics. A high number of continued claims suggests that many workers are still unemployed and receiving benefits, indicating a weak labor market. Conversely, a low number of continued claims suggests that fewer workers are unemployed and receiving benefits, indicating a strong labor market. The chart illustrates the trend in continued claims for unemployment insurance, a critical measure of labor market dynamics. Understanding these trends is crucial for assessing the overall health of the labor market and the economy.
Figure 28: The 24-month change in continued claims for unemployment insurance provides insights into labor market dynamics over time. A positive change indicates an increase in continued claims, suggesting a weakening labor market. Conversely, a negative change suggests a decline in continued claims, indicating a strengthening labor market. Understanding these trends is crucial for assessing the overall health of the labor market and the economy.
Figure 29: The boxplot illustrates the distribution of 24-month changes in continued claims for unemployment insurance across different stages of the business cycle. By examining these changes by stage, we can gain insights into how continued claims evolve during different phases of the economic cycle. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for assessing the overall health of the labor market and the economy.
Business Confidence Surveys
Business confidence surveys, such as the ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices, include components that specifically ask businesses about their expectations for future employment. These forward-looking assessments can provide valuable insights into labor demand trends. The chart illustrates the trend in the ISM Manufacturing Employment Index, a key indicator of labor demand. Understanding these trends is crucial for assessing the overall health of the labor market and the economy.
Figure 30: Business confidence surveys, such as the ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices, include components that specifically ask businesses about their expectations for future employment. These forward-looking assessments can provide valuable insights into labor demand trends. The chart illustrates the trend in the ISM Manufacturing Employment Index, a key indicator of labor demand. Understanding these trends is crucial for assessing the overall health of the labor market and the economy.
Figure 31: The 24-month change in the ISM Manufacturing Employment Index provides insights into labor market dynamics over time. A positive change indicates an increase in the index, suggesting a strengthening labor market. Conversely, a negative change suggests a decline in the index, indicating a weakening labor market. Understanding these trends is crucial for assessing the overall health of the labor market and the economy.
Figure 32: The boxplot illustrates the distribution of 24-month changes in the ISM Manufacturing Employment Index across different stages of the business cycle. By examining these changes by stage, we can gain insights into how the index evolves during different phases of the economic cycle. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for assessing the overall health of the labor market and the economy.
Apr-25
Mar-25
Feb-25
Jan-25
Dec-24
Nov-24
Oct-24
Sep-24
Aug-24
Jul-24
Jun-24
May-24
ISM Manufacturing Employment
--
44.7
47.6
50.3
45.4
48.1
44.8
43.9
46
43.4
49.3
51.1
Apr-25
Mar-25
Feb-25
Jan-25
Dec-24
Nov-24
Oct-24
Sep-24
Aug-24
Jul-24
Jun-24
May-24
Δ in ISM Man Employment
--
-2.9
-2.7
4.9
-2.7
3.3
0.9
-2.1
2.6
-5.9
-1.8
2.5
Trend
--
Down
Up
Up
Down
Up
Down
Down
Down
Down
Up
Up
24-Month Change
--
-220
-150
-30
-540
-30
-520
-480
-820
-650
200
150
Short-Term Unemployment Ratio (STUR)
The Short-Term Unemployment Ratio (STUR) is a metric that assesses the proportion of individuals unemployed for less than 5 weeks relative to those unemployed for 15 to 26 weeks. Essentially, it gauges the prevalence of very recent unemployment compared to more persistent joblessness. Monitoring the STUR can provide valuable insights into emerging cracks in the labor market. A rising STUR may signal that while people are losing jobs, they are quickly finding new ones, indicating a healthy and dynamic labor market. Conversely, a declining STUR suggests that those entering unemployment are struggling to find re-employment, potentially indicating a weakening labor market or challenges with skills matching. By tracking this ratio alongside other economic indicators, analysts and policymakers can gain a more nuanced understanding of labor market health and identify potential warning signs before broader economic issues arise.
Figure 33: The Short-Term Unemployment Ratio (STUR) is a metric that assesses the proportion of individuals unemployed for less than 5 weeks relative to those unemployed for 15 to 26 weeks. Essentially, it gauges the prevalence of very recent unemployment compared to more persistent joblessness. Monitoring the STUR can provide valuable insights into emerging cracks in the labor market. A rising STUR may signal that while people are losing jobs, they are quickly finding new ones, indicating a healthy and dynamic labor market. Conversely, a declining STUR suggests that those entering unemployment are struggling to find re-employment, potentially indicating a weakening labor market or challenges with skills matching. By tracking this ratio alongside other economic indicators, analysts and policymakers can gain a more nuanced understanding of labor market health and identify potential warning signs before broader economic issues arise.
Figure 34: The 24-month change in the Short-Term Unemployment Ratio (STUR) provides insights into labor market dynamics over time. A positive change indicates an increase in the ratio, suggesting a strengthening labor market. Conversely, a negative change suggests a decline in the ratio, indicating a weakening labor market. Understanding these trends is crucial for assessing the overall health of the labor market and the economy.
Figure 35: The boxplot illustrates the distribution of 24-month changes in the Short-Term Unemployment Ratio (STUR) across different stages of the business cycle. By examining these changes by stage, we can gain insights into how the ratio evolves during different phases of the economic cycle. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for assessing the overall health of the labor market and the economy.