Leading Economic Indicators

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Leading Economic Index (LEI)

Not to be confused with Leading Economic Indicators (LEIs), the Leading Economic Index (LEI)¹ is a composite index that is designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. It is constructed from a variety of economic indicators that have historically shown a strong correlation with future economic activity. The LEI is widely used by economists and policymakers to gauge the health of the economy and to anticipate changes in economic conditions.

Index

Figure 1: Plot of the Leading Economic Index (LEI)

Figure 2: Plot of the Leading Economic Index (LEI)

Growth Rate

Figure 3: Growth Rate for the Leading Economic Index (LEI)

Figure 4: Growth Rate for the Leading Economic Index (LEI)

Recent Changes To The Leading Economic index (LEI)

	Apr-25	Mar-25	Feb-25	Jan-25	Dec-24	Nov-24	Oct-24	Sep-24	Aug-24	Jul-24	Jun-24	May-24
LEI	--	--	101.1	101.5	101.6	101.7	101.3	99.7	100.2	100.5	101	101.2
Δ Change	--	--	-0.4	-0.1	-0.1	0.4	1.6	-0.5	-0.3	-0.5	-0.2	-0.5
Percent Δ Change	--	--	-0.39	-0.1	-0.1	0.39	1.6	-0.5	-0.3	-0.5	-0.2	-0.49
Yr/Yr Growth Rate	--	--	-1.56	-0.98	-1.45	-1.55	-2.31	-4.78	-4.84	-4.92	-4.72	-5.15
Trend	--	--	Down	Up	Up	Up	Up	Down	Down	Down	Down	Down
Trend in Growth Rate	--	--	Up	Up	Up	Up	Up	Up	Up	Up	Up	Up

Table 1: This table presents a snapshot of the U.S. economy’s performance through the lens of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI). It tracks key metrics like the LEI’s change, its growth rates, offering insights into potential economic turning points. This data allows us to analyze the economy’s trajectory and make more informed investment decisions.

Market Data

The S&P 500 Index

The S&P 500 Index² is a market-capitalization-weighted index of the 500 largest publicly traded companies in the U.S. It is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities. The index includes companies from all sectors of the economy and is considered a bellwether for the overall health of the U.S. stock market.

Index

Figure 5: Plot of the Leading Economic Index (LEI)

Figure 6: Plot of the Leading Economic Index (LEI)

Growth Rate

Figure 7: Growth Rate the S&P 500 Index

Figure 8: Growth Rate for the S&P 500 Index

Recent Changes To The Leading Economic index (LEI)

	Apr-25	Mar-25	Feb-25	Jan-25	Dec-24	Nov-24	Oct-24	Sep-24	Aug-24	Jul-24	Jun-24	May-24
S&P 500 Index	5074.08	5611.85	5954.5	6040.53	5881.63	6032.38	5705.45	5762.48	5648.4	5522.3	5460.48	5277.51
Δ Change	-537.77	-342.65	-86.03	158.9	-150.75	326.93	-57.03	114.08	126.1	61.82	182.97	241.82
Percent Δ Change	-9.58	-5.75	-1.42	2.7	-2.5	5.73	-0.99	2.02	2.28	1.13	3.47	4.8
Yr/Yr Growth Rate	-2.64	6.92	17.26	22.65	23.31	32.56	36.04	34.02	25.11	20.34	24.76	26.26
Trend	Down	Down	Up	Up	Up	Up	Up	Up	Up	Up	Up	Up
Trend in Growth Rate	Down	Down	Down	Down	Down	Up	Up	Up	Down	Down	Down	Up

Table 2: This table presents a snapshot of the U.S. economy’s performance through the lens of the S&P 500 Index. It tracks key metrics like the S&P 500’s change, its growth rates, offering insights into potential economic turning points. This data allows us to analyze the economy’s trajectory and make more informed investment decisions.

High Yield Credit Spreads

ICE publish a option adjusted spread on CCC rated bonds is a measure of the risk premium investors demand to hold these bonds over the risk-free rate. It is a key indicator of the health of the high yield bond market and the broader economy.

Index

Figure 9: Plot of the CCC & Lower US High Yield Index OAS

Figure 10: Plot of the CCC & Lower US High Yield Index OAS

Yr/Yr Change Inverted

Figure 11: Yr/Yr Change of CCC & Lower US High Yield Index OAS

Figure 12: Yr/Yr Change of CCC & Lower US High Yield Index OAS

Recent Changes To The Leading Economic index (LEI)

	Apr-25	Mar-25	Feb-25	Jan-25	Dec-24	Nov-24	Oct-24	Sep-24	Aug-24	Jul-24	Jun-24	May-24
CCC & Lower US High Yield Index OAS	10.99	9.28	7.6	6.99	7.46	7.35	7.56	8.02	9.47	9.42	9.53	9.34
Δ Change	1.71	1.68	0.61	-0.47	0.11	-0.21	-0.46	-1.45	0.05	-0.11	0.19	0.18
Percent Δ Change	18.43	22.11	8.73	-6.3	1.5	-2.78	-5.74	-15.31	0.53	-1.15	2.03	1.97
Yr/Yr Δ Inverted	-1.83	-0.42	0.89	2.29	1.88	1.69	2.21	1.7	-0.7	-0.47	-0.24	0.35
Trend	Up	Up	Up	Down	Down	Down	Down	Down	Up	Up	Up	Up
Trend in Δ Inverted	Down	Down	Down	Up	Up	Up	Up	Up	Down	Down	Down	Down

Table 3: This table presents a snapshot of the U.S. economy’s performance through the lens of the S&P 500 Index. It tracks key metrics like the S&P 500’s change, its growth rates, offering insights into potential economic turning points. This data allows us to analyze the economy’s trajectory and make more informed investment decisions.

Soft Data

ISM New Orders

ISM New Orders³ is a key leading indicator of economic activity in the U.S. economy. It is a component of the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing Report on Business, which is based on a survey of purchasing managers at more than 300 manufacturing firms. The New Orders Index is a forward-looking indicator that provides insight into future production levels and overall economic activity.

Index

Figure 13: Plot of ISM New Orders

Figure 14: Plot of ISM New Orders

Yr/Yr Change

Figure 15: Yr/Yr Change for ISM New Orders

Figure 16: Yr/Yr Change for ISM New Orders

Recent Changes To The Leading Economic index (LEI)

	Apr-25	Mar-25	Feb-25	Jan-25	Dec-24	Nov-24	Oct-24	Sep-24	Aug-24	Jul-24	Jun-24	May-24
ISM New Orders	--	45.2	48.6	55.1	52.1	50.3	47.9	46.1	44.6	47.4	49.3	45.4
Δ Change	--	-3.4	-6.5	3	1.8	2.4	1.8	1.5	-2.8	-1.9	3.9	-3.7
Percent Δ Change	--	-7	-11.8	5.76	3.58	5.01	3.9	3.36	-5.91	-3.85	8.59	-7.54
Yr/Yr Change	--	-6.2	-0.6	2.6	5.1	2.5	2.4	-3.1	-2.2	0.1	3.7	2.8
Trend	--	Down	Down	Up	Up	Up	Up	Down	Down	Down	Down	Down
Trend in Growth Rate	--	Down	Down	Up	Up	Up	Up	Down	Down	Down	Down	Down

Table 4: This table presents a snapshot of the U.S. economy’s performance through the lens of the ISM New Orders Index. It tracks key metrics like the ISM New Orders Index’s change, its growth rates, offering insights into potential economic turning points. This data allows us to analyze the economy’s trajectory and make more informed investment decisions.

ISM Manufacturing PMI

The ISM Manufacturing PMI⁴ is a key leading indicator of economic activity in the U.S. economy. It is a component of the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing Report on Business, which is based on a survey of purchasing managers at more than 300 manufacturing firms. The PMI is a forward-looking indicator that provides insight into future production levels and overall economic activity.

Index

Figure 17: Plot of ISM Manufacturing PMI

Figure 18: Plot of ISM Manufacturing PMI

Yr/Yr Change

Figure 19: Yr/Yr Change for ISM Manufacturing PMI

Figure 20: Yr/Yr Change for ISM Manufacturing PMI

Recent Changes To The Leading Economic index (LEI)

	Apr-25	Mar-25	Feb-25	Jan-25	Dec-24	Nov-24	Oct-24	Sep-24	Aug-24	Jul-24	Jun-24	May-24
ISM Manufacturing PMI	--	49	50.3	50.9	49.2	48.4	46.9	47.5	47.5	47	48.3	48.5
Δ Change	--	-1.3	-0.6	1.7	0.8	1.5	-0.6	0	0.5	-1.3	-0.2	-0.3
Percent Δ Change	--	-2.58	-1.18	3.46	1.65	3.2	-1.26	0	1.06	-2.69	-0.41	-0.61
Yr/Yr Change	--	-0.8	2.7	1.8	2.1	1.8	0.2	-1.5	-0.1	0.6	2.3	1.6
Trend	--	Down	Up	Up	Up	Up	Down	Down	Down	Down	Down	Up
Trend in Growth Rate	--	Down	Up	Up	Up	Up	Down	Down	Down	Down	Up	Up

Table 5: This table presents a snapshot of the U.S. economy’s performance through the lens of the ISM New Orders Index. It tracks key metrics like the ISM New Orders Index’s change, its growth rates, offering insights into potential economic turning points. This data allows us to analyze the economy’s trajectory and make more informed investment decisions.

Hard Data

Manufacturers’ New Orders

Index

Figure 21: Plot of Manufacturers’ New Orders

Figure 22: Plot of Manufacturers’ New Orders

Growth Rate

Figure 23: Yr/Yr Change for Manufacturers’ New Orders

Figure 24: Yr/Yr Change for Manufacturers’ New Orders

Recent Changes To The Leading Economic index (LEI)

	Apr-25	Mar-25	Feb-25	Jan-25	Dec-24	Nov-24	Oct-24	Sep-24	Aug-24	Jul-24	Jun-24	May-24
Manufacturers' New Orders: Cap Goods Ex-Aircraft	--	--	75131	75250	74507	74365	73764	73855	73632	73482	73690	73284
Δ Change	--	--	-119	743	142	601	-91	223	150	-208	406	-656
Percent Δ Change	--	--	-0.16	1	0.19	0.81	-0.12	0.3	0.2	-0.28	0.55	-0.89
Yr/Yr Change	--	--	1.63	2.34	0.7	1.15	0.74	-0.15	-0.18	0.53	-0.06	-0.53
Trend	--	--	Up	Up	Up	Up	Up	Up	Down	Down	Down	Down
Trend in Growth Rate	--	--	Up	Up	Up	Up	Up	Down	Down	Up	Down	Down

Table 6: Manufacturers’ New Orders Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft

Manufacturers’ New Orders: Consumer Goods

Index

Figure 25: Plot of Manufacturers’ New Orders (Consumer Goods)

Figure 26: Plot of Manufacturers’ New Orders (Consumer Goods)

Growth Rate

Figure 27: Yr/Yr Change for Manufacturers’ New Orders (Consumer Goods)

Figure 28: Yr/Yr Change for Manufacturers’ New Orders (Consumer Goods)

Recent Changes To The Leading Economic index (LEI)

	Apr-25	Mar-25	Feb-25	Jan-25	Dec-24	Nov-24	Oct-24	Sep-24	Aug-24	Jul-24	Jun-24	May-24
Manufacturers' New Orders: Consumer Goods	--	--	250897	248674	248684	248160	248120	247917	247991	249784	250233	251570
Δ Change	--	--	2223	-10	524	40	203	-74	-1793	-449	-1337	-3059
Percent Δ Change	--	--	0.89	0	0.21	0.02	0.08	-0.03	-0.72	-0.18	-0.53	-1.2
Yr/Yr Change	--	--	0.71	1.98	1.07	1.01	1.84	-1.97	-1.3	1.88	3.83	4.19
Trend	--	--	Up	Up	Up	Down	Down	Down	Down	Down	Down	Up
Trend in Growth Rate	--	--	Down	Up	Up	Up	Up	Down	Down	Down	Up	Up

Table 7: Manufacturers’ New Orders (Consumer Goods)

Initial Jobless Claims (4-week Average)

Index

Figure 29: Plot of Initial Jobless Claims (4-week Average)

Figure 30: Plot ofInitial Jobless Claims (4-week Average)

Yr/Yr Change Inverted

Figure 31: Yr/Yr Change for Initial Jobless Claims (4-week Average)

Figure 32: Yr/Yr Change for Initial Jobless Claims (4-week Average)

Recent Changes To The Leading Economic index (LEI)

	Apr-25	Mar-25	Feb-25	Jan-25	Dec-24	Nov-24	Oct-24	Sep-24	Aug-24	Jul-24	Jun-24	May-24
Initial Claims (4 Week Avg)	--	223000	226000	213500	222250	219000	236250	225000	230000	236500	237250	222000
Δ Change	--	-3000	12500	-8750	3250	-17250	11250	-5000	-6500	-750	15250	11750
Percent Δ Change	--	-1.33	5.85	-3.94	1.48	-7.3	5	-2.17	-2.75	-0.32	6.87	5.59
Yr/Yr Change Inverted	--	-7250	-15250	-3500	-17000	-1000	-26000	-8000	7250	-5000	13250	4250
Trend	--	Down	Up	Down	Down	Down	Up	Down	Up	Up	Up	Up
Trend in Change Inverted	--	Up	Down	Up	Down	Down	Down	Down	Down	Down	Up	Up

Table 8: Initial Jobless Claims (4-week Average)

Manufacturing Weekly Hours

Index

Figure 33: Plot of Weekly Hours Manufacturing

Figure 34: Plot of Weekly Hours Manufacturing

Yr/Yr Change

Figure 35: Yr/Yr Change for Weekly Hours Manufacturing

Figure 36: Yr/Yr Change for Weekly Hours Manufacturing

Recent Changes To The Leading Economic index (LEI)

	Apr-25	Mar-25	Feb-25	Jan-25	Dec-24	Nov-24	Oct-24	Sep-24	Aug-24	Jul-24	Jun-24	May-24
Manufacturing Weekly Hours	--	41.1	41	40.7	40.9	40.7	40.5	40.7	40.7	40.6	40.8	40.9
Δ Change	--	0.1	0.3	-0.2	0.2	0.2	-0.2	0	0.1	-0.2	-0.1	0.3
Percent Δ Change	--	0.24	0.74	-0.49	0.49	0.49	-0.49	0	0.25	-0.49	-0.24	0.74
Yr/Yr Change	--	0.5	0.4	0.5	0.6	0.1	-0.3	0	0	-0.1	0.1	0.2
Trend	--	Up	Up	Up	Up	Up	Down	Down	Up	Down	Up	Up
Trend in Growth Rate	--	Up	Up	Up	Up	Up	Down	Down	Down	Down	Up	Up

Table 9: Weekly Hours Manufacturing

Building Permits

Index

Figure 37: Plot of Building Permits

Figure 38: Plot of Building Permits

Growth Rate

Figure 39: Yr/Yr Change for Building Permits

Figure 40: Yr/Yr Change for Building Permits

Recent Changes To The Leading Economic index (LEI)

	Apr-25	Mar-25	Feb-25	Jan-25	Dec-24	Nov-24	Oct-24	Sep-24	Aug-24	Jul-24	Jun-24	May-24
Building Permits	--	--	1459	1473	1482	1493	1419	1425	1470	1406	1454	1399
Δ Change	--	--	-14	-9	-11	74	-6	-45	64	-48	55	-41
Percent Δ Change	--	--	-0.95	-0.61	-0.74	5.21	-0.42	-3.06	4.55	-3.3	3.93	-2.85
Yr/Yr Change	--	--	-6.65	-2.32	-3.14	-0.99	-7.5	-5.94	-6.84	-6.33	-2.61	-8.68
Trend	--	--	Up	Up	Up	Up	Down	Down	Up	Down	Down	Down
Trend in Growth Rate	--	--	Down	Up	Up	Up	Down	Down	Down	Down	Down	Down

Table 10: Building Permits

Apendix

Note

Last Updated: April 07, 2025

Footnotes

1. The Leading Economic Indicator (LEI): Developed and published by The Conference Board, the LEI is a composite index of ten economic indicators. We have obtained the data from public data sets and the exact data my not match the official data. The Growth rate has been calculated as the percent change in the index value over the last 12 months. The preferred method for monitoring the LEI is to look at the Yr/Yr growth rate and the 6-month moving average of the growth rate. This provides a smoothed view of the data and helps to identify trends and shifts in the economy.

2. The S&P 500 Index: The S&P 500 Index is a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global, or its affiliates (“SPDJI”). Standard & Poor’s® and S&P® are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC, a division of S&P Global (“S&P”); Dow Jones® is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (“Dow Jones”). The S&P 500 Index is a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and/or its affiliates. The S&P 500 Index is a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global, or its affiliates (“SPDJI”). Standard & Poor’s® and S&P® are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC, a division of S&P Global (“S&P”); Dow Jones® is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (“Dow Jones”).

3. ISM New Orders: The ISM New Orders Index is a product of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The ISM New Orders Index is a key leading indicator of economic activity in the U.S. economy. It is a component of the ISM Manufacturing Report on Business, which is based on a survey of purchasing managers at more than 300 manufacturing firms. The New Orders Index is a forward-looking indicator that provides insight into future production levels and overall economic activity.

4. ISM Manufacturing PMI: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a product of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a key leading indicator of economic activity in the U.S. economy. It is a component of the ISM Manufacturing Report on Business, which is based on a survey of purchasing managers at more than 300 manufacturing firms. The PMI is a forward-looking indicator that provides insight into future production levels and overall economic activity.